Is Bennu Really Going To Hit Earth On 3 February 2025?

One of the few asteroid that humanity has call might one day call us . Unfortunately , while we delicately ( with a little service fromQueen’sBrian May ) land on the asteroid and scooped up samples to return home , a visit from Bennu to Earth would involve it slamming into the major planet with the military force of 22 atomic bomb .

But is it cash in one’s chips to come to ? And why doesSeptember 24 , 2182keep getting remark ?

First of all , Bennu waslargely chosenfor a visit by NASA ’s OSIRIS - REx due to the excellent radiolocation data and telescope observations we already have on it , reducing risk to the missionary station . However , the asteroid is one of themost likelyto impinge on Earth , and by meditate its composition and orbit , NASA hoped to gain a groovy apprehension of the risk posed by the object .

old idea had suggest the chance of hitting Bennu ( hey , this rifle both mode ) sometime between 2175 and 2199 as one in 2,700 . If it were to hit Earth , the 500 meters ( 1,640 base ) across asteroid would release1,200 megatons of DOE , 24 prison term the Department of Energy of the most powerful atomic weapon built by humanity . While this is nothing to brush off , it is far smaller than the 9.7 - kilometer ( 6 - sea mile ) asteroid thatdoomed the dinosaur .

After two long time of closely observing Bennu , NASA was able to better infer its future celestial orbit , andrefine the chancesthat it will one twenty-four hour period collide with Earth .

“ The OSIRIS - REx data point give us so much more precise information , we can screen the limits of our models and calculate the next trajectory of Bennu to a very in high spirits degree of foregone conclusion through 2135 , ” study wind writer Davide Farnocchia , of the Center for Near - Earth Object Studies ( CNEOS ) , say in astatement . “ We ’ve never model an asteroid ’s trajectory to this preciseness before . ”

alas , the odds have shifted slightly more in favor of an impact , to about 1 in 1,750 by the class 2300 . The most probable particular date of encroachment , where the orbits are bode to be closest , is September 24 , 2182 . On this date , there is a one in 2,700 luck of impact according to NASA , or around 0.037 percent . While it may seem counterintuitive that these odds are lower , think of how when you wrap a die you have a one in six opportunity of getting a six , but if you have many more opportunities to get a six the odds against you getting it are reduce .

" Although the chances of it attain Earth are very downhearted , Bennu remains one of the two most hazardous known asteroid in our solar system , along with another asteroid called 1950 district attorney , " NASA explained .

NASA and other observatories pass over the scope of objective discover in the Solar System , keeping a particular eye on " near Earth target " ( NEOs ) 140 meters ( 460 feet ) and expectant in size that could cause ravaging if they were to cross path with Earth . So far " no known asteroid larger than 140 meters in sizing has a pregnant prospect to attain Earth for the next 100 old age , " according toNASA .

One team was recently able to lookfurther into the futureusing different methods .

" valuate the impact risk over farseeing time scales is a challenge since orbital uncertainties develop . To overcome this limitation we break down the evolution of the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance ( MOID ) , which bounds the near potential encounter between the asteroid and the Earth , " the team explicate in theirpaper . " The evolution of the MOID highlights NEOs that are in the neighbourhood of the Earth for longer periods of fourth dimension , and we propose a method to judge the chance of a deep Earth meeting during these periods . "

Using this method , the squad were able to decree out the legal age of NEOs from hitting our planet within the next thousand year , and could estimate the probability of some wiping us out further into the future . The probability of being make before the year 3000 is bet pretty low according to the squad , with the most probable objective to pip us – 7482 ( 1994 PC1 ) – having only a0.00151 pct chanceof a close encounter , come near the worldly concern closer than the orbit of the Moon .

While there is still the menace of unidentified object surprising us , if Bennu was on course the US and China have been working on proposals to deflect it out from Earth usingrocket impacts , while last year NASA bring home the bacon inredirectingan asteroid by mosh a probe into it .